From: nagle@netcom.com (John Nagle)
Subject: Re: INDUSTRY: Let's put a stop to Conference Mania!
Date: Fri, 11 Jun 1993 17:47:42 GMT
Organization: NETCOM On-line Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)



Robert Jacobson <cyberoid@u.washington.edu> writes:

>HYPERCONFERENCING AND VIRTUAL WORLDS:
>THE CENTER CANNOT HOLD!
>It goes almost without saying that there are too many conferences
>covering much the same territory in the field of "virtual reality."
...
>There can be no doubt that conference organizing has become the single
>most profitable aspect of the virtual world. 

       Even at the height of the AI boom things never reached that
point.  The most profitable aspect of the AI world was going public.

       Will there be a "VR winter", as there has been an "AI winter"?
Perhaps.  There could well be a slow period, as there was for video
games in the period after Pac-Man but before Nitendo, or as there was
for PCs after Viatron but before Apple.  Fundamentally, VR has a cost
problem, and it may take a decade to really fix that right.  While
waiting for Reality Engines to come down to Nitendo prices, things may
well be slow.  And then it may take another decade until the Irving
Thalberg of VR comes along and figures out how to use the medium.

       There being many conferences is a minor problem.  The fact that
the main activity in the field is conferences is a serious problem.
But it's self-correcting.  Either products that sell in volume will
appear, or people will stop going.

					John Nagle